Poll: Kerry Gaining Among Swing Voters
The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press called back 519 voters who were either undecided in September or said they could still change their minds... Swing voters "have been drifting toward Kerry a little more than Bush," said Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center.
Not really.
The number of swing voters in that group either committed or leaning toward Kerry was 40 percent, up from 28 percent in September. The number either committed or leaning toward Bush was 38 percent, compared to 34 percent in September.About half the group is firmly committed to a candidate and the other half are weighing their final choice. Swing voters make up about 15 percent of the overall electorate, according to Pew polling.
The 519 swing voters were called Sept. 8-26 and called back Oct. 21-25. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 5 percentage points, slightly larger for subgroups.
If this "poll" were valid all it really says is that Bush locked upabout 40% of these "swing" voters before Kerry did. SO, each has about 40% with 20% still undecided. Duh! That just mirrors what most have been saying all along. And the numbers aren't even reliable. With a margin of error of 5% - or higher for subgroups - this data is gibberish, especially given the small sample. And they don't even define what a "swing voter" is, or how and why is it that "subgroups" were involved.
So, we have a nonsense poll generating a nonsense story leading to this nonsense I just wrote! But their story fed into the current Kerry propaganda machine bent on telling the world Kerry has the momentum. Doesn't look it from here. He needs more than 50% of undecideds as of now - and they tend to break for the encumbent at this point. This is actually bad news for Kerry with a hearty spin.
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