One Election Perspective

If you accept RCP's current EV numbers and they hold, then the following is true.

Bush has to win Florida where he is currently up two to get to 259 EV's. At that point all he would need is an additional ten EV's to secure a tie and ultimately a win in the House of Representatives. His options to get those last ten EV's include:

Wisconsin - 10 EV Bush currently up 0.6%
or
Minnesota - 10 EV Currently tie
or
Iowa - 7 EV Bush currrently up 1.3%
combined with either Hawaii (4 EV) Bush +0.9, or New Hampshire (4 EV) Kerry +2.4.

For Kerry to win, again, assuming Bush wins Florida, Kerry MUST first win Ohio (Kerry +2.0) and PA Kerry +2.0. If he loses either one, it's over. Assuming he can win those, he would still need 22 additional EV's. His options are:

IA (7) Bush +1.3
MN (10) TIE
NH (4) Kerry +2.4
WI (10) Bush +0.6

In short, Kerry has no margin for error. If additional reports of Hawaii and NJ being tied prove true and NJ (15 EV) moves to Bush on election night, it's over based upon this scenario. If Hawaii (4 EV) goes to Bush WI, MN and IA become must wins for Kerry.

Comments

[Daisy]

Dan,

It won't be that close. According to Jay Cost, Wisconsin is going Bush. Ohio is going Bush. Michigan is definitely in play. It is getting interesting and fun. And now the terror tape is getting out there. Amazing.