The guys at Power Line picked this up from Polipundit, two sites I like and read. But I really don't get it.
Jayson at PoliPundit thinks the current "over/under" for the U.S. Senate is GOP four. Here's how he reaches this conclusion: GOP hopeful David Vitter now is tracking at 51 percent in Louisiana. RCP is reporting that Rasmussen has John Thune leading Daschle by three points in S.D., with only five percent undecided. Once-lost GOP candidates, Richard Burr and Tom Coburn, appear to have sealed their respective races, apparently in spite of themselves. Democrats who are clinging to polls out of Colorado need to talk to Wayne Allard’s opponent from 2002, before getting too giddy about their true prospects in that race. And we’re not even hearing much if anything from the liberal media about the Murkowski-Knowles race, which must mean, by definition, that Murkowski is poised to hold the seat. Of course, Georgia and South Carolina always were locks for the GOP; whereas, Illinois always has been a certain pick up for the Democrats.
What's the point in assuming Murkowski is "poised to hold" anything because you haven't "heard" anything, all you need do is look. Murkowski's still down by 3+. Thune is only (up) 0.5 with a MoE of 4 and 4% undecided according to RCP - not the 3 stated by using only the one poll. And the poll with Daschle up 2 has a larger sample by 60%.
As far as Colorado, if you're only going to use the single last poll as was done to claim Thune 3 up, then Coors is 10 down by the same method, down 2.2 using RCP's averaging.
As far as Burr-Bowles:
Recent polls show Burr, of Winston-Salem, running in a statistical dead heat with Erskine Bowles while Ballantine shows a double-digit deficit against Mike Easley.
And the one recent poll showing Burr up was one of those automated telephone jobs most don't like.
Then as far as Coburn, everything I see has a dead heat with huge undecides - 15%.
PoliPundit, as always, is excellent in providing links with their post. Unfortunately, the links and other reading linked here don't support the analysis. Sorry, I prefer my cheerleaders with better legs. GOP picks up two as NRO's Miller says and, to be fair, Powerline does quote.
Comments