Everyone is probably sick of polls by now - wanting to believe the ones that confirm our feelings, looking to discredit or minimize ones that disagree. I know I find myself doing that. But there's an angle that I haven't seen many talk about - the big picture battleground numbers.
If you're a Bush supporter and want something to cheer you up - take a look at this:
Rassmussen has 129 Electoral Votes (EV) still in play. Of those, only 34 EV are from states that Bush won in 2,000 and can't yet claim as safe today. They would be Colorado (9 EV), Nevada (5 EV) and Ohio (20 EV). And, while not yet in the Bush column, let's look at Rassmussen's numbers for each of the three states:
Colorado: Bush up 48 to 44 % as of Oct. 2
Nevada: Bush up 47 - 45 % as of Sept. 24
Ohio: Bush up 48 =- 47 % as of Oct. 3
Now let's look at Gore 2000 states Kerry has yet to secure. It'll take a bit more time and that's a good thing. Kerry can't yet claim 95 Electoral Votes across 8 states Gore won in 2000. They are Iowa (7), Maryland (10), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10), New Jersey (15), New Mexico (5), Pennsylvania (21) and Wisconsin (10). The head to head races in those states look like this:
Iowa: Bush up 48 - 45 % as of Sept. 26
Maryland: Kerry up 48 - 45 % as of Sept. 29
Michigan: Tied 46 - 46 % as of Sept. 30
Minnesota Tied 46 - 46 % as of Sept. 26
New Jersey Kerry up 49 - 46 % as of Sept. 28
New Mexico Tied 46 - 46 % as of Aug. 18
Pennsylvania Tied 47 - 47 $ as of Oct. 2
Wisconsin Bush up 49 - 46 % as of Oct. 1
Conclusion: Bush is at least up in all states he won in 2000 which would earn him 274 EV and another term if the election followed these numbers. On top of that, he is also up in Iowa and Wisconsin, giving him an additional 17 EV for a total of 288. If Kerry and Bush split currently tied states, Bush would win another 26 EV for a total of 314 EV and a significant EV victory.
On the Kerry side of things, if Kerry won all states in which he is ahead today, he would garner 194 EV, far short of the required 271. Splitting the tied states with President Bush would net him an additional 26 EV, leaving him at 220, fully 50 EV's short of a win.
By these numbers, Kerry is far from even, or slightly ahead in this election. He has significant ground to make up no matter what the press might tell you. And odds of this happening are not good, barring some October surprise on his behalf.
Now let's look at Real Clear Politic's numbers. Keep in mind state by state numbers differ between the two polls. At RCP a similar quick analysis would yield the following results based upon a simple solid + leaning +50/50 split of toss ups methodology:
Bush 291 EV's
Kerry 247 EV's
But if you take RCP's toss up numbers to the next level, eliminating toss ups for even the smallest lead, you would get the following result:
Kerry wins Iowa, New Hampshire and Oregon for 18 additional EV's, with an additional 7.5 EV's for splitting actual ties in Maine and New Mexico. That gives him a grand total of 245.5 EV - comprised of 153 EV solid, 67 EV leaning, 18 for barely leaning and 7.5 from 15 halved for ties.
Bush would get Ohio's 20 and 7.5 for actual ties and wind up with 291.5 - comprised of 176 solid, 88 leaning, 20 barely leaning and 7.5 from 15 halved for ties.
Those totals are off 1 EV due to Maine's ability to split electoral votes by district. Bottom line with that, Kerry is actually only leading as regards 2 of the 3 potential Maine EV's, so it's likely that the remaining one vote would swing to Bush. But it's insignificant to this analysis.
Even if Bush loses actual ties in Maine and New Mexico, Kerry still winds up with only 253 EV's to Bush's 284 EV's and Bush wins re-election.
The deeper you dig, the better it gets for Bush. If we look at RCP's "leaning" category, it's plain to see that states leaning Bush are leaning more substantially than states leaning Kerry. Two leaning Kerry states, Maine (3 EV) and Michigan (17 EV) are at +2.5% and +2.7% respectively - well within a margin for error. The remaining Kerry leaners are NJ (15 EV) +6%, PA (21 EV) +4.2% and WA (11 EV) +10.3%.
Bush has no "leaners" below 3%. His leaners are Arkansas (6 EV) + 9 %, Colorado (9 EV) +4.5%, Florida (27 EV) +3.5%, Missouri (11 EV) + 4%, Nevada (5 EV) + 4.8%, North Carolina (15 EV) +7%, West Virginia (5 EV) +3.2% and Wisconsin (10 EV) +5.3%.)
To summarize the above - Kerry's current EV potential is:
153 EV solid
20 leaning by < 3%
21 leaning by > 3% but < 5%
26 leaning by > 5%
Bush's current EV potential is:
176 EV solid
0 leaning by < 3%
57 leaning by > 3% but < 5%
31 leaning by > 5%
The 54 remaining available EV's are:
IA (7) leaning Kerry by 1%
ME/CD2 (1) unknown - (already conceded to Kerry)
MN (10) Tie
NH (4) leaning Kerry by 0.7%
NM (5) Tie
OH (20) leaning Bush by 1.6%
OR (7) leaning Kerry by 2.7%
Bush only needs to win 6 EV's from the category immediately above.
Kerry needs to win 50 EV's from above, almost all of them, while holding onto everything in his "leaning" category, which is weaker than Bush's "leaning" category. Kerry has very little if any margin for error, as opposed to Bush. Don't "misunderestimate" the significance of this, particularly in the final weeks of a presidential campaign that can put incredible demands on dollars and time on the ground.
Effectively, Bush could use the last weeks to shore up what he already has, forget Ohio, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, etc - throw all additional resources into just winning Iowa and he could win the election with 271 electoral votes. He could concede and pull out of PA and OH tomorrow and still win. Kerry has to find a way to shore up several "at risk" states while also attacking in Ohio now leaning Bush and in tied states like Minnesota and New Mexico.
If 2000 taught us some things, it also reminded us that it is the electoral college and not the popular vote that wins elections. And regardless of what the pundits and national polls are saying, where the rubber meets the road, in the electoral college race, Bush is enjoying a significant advantage.
As one of our favorite talking heads once said: "Courage!"
Excellent analysis. I'll go to bed with a smile on my face. kw
Posted by: Kevin W | Monday, October 11, 2004 at 12:02 AM