Is Rick Perry Done?
I wanted Rick Perry to get into the race based mainly on what I'd heard. My initial reaction after he did was, well he didn't consolidate the supporters of some lesser polling contenders, thereby dispatching them; however, all in all, he was doing quite well.
Going in, I saw these last three debates as critical to him, but by no means everything. Unfortunately, instead of seizing upon them as an opportunity, his now obviously very weak debating skills have proved to be disastrous. He went in as a fresh face and has now, to some extent, damaged himself. I'm by no means writing him off. But Perry's path to the nomination just got a whole lot harder and longer. He comes out of these debates needing to turn things around, while facing an experienced and relentless Romney machine intent on not giving him the opportunity to do it.
I mentioned Rick Perry’s DREAM Act debate blunder in my round-up post.It gets second place.
The cringe-worthiest moment, by a hair, was when Perry botched what should have been his most potent attack on Mitt Romney’s chronic flip-flopping.As I noted on Twitter when it happened, any random high schooler at the CPAC conference in Washington could have done better than this.
Romny has turned out to be pitiful IMO.
Rick Perry shot to the top of the polls on a coordinated rolled and was the annointed conservative savior sight unseen and now he has been seen. Perry showed he was a Compassionate Conservative, which in other words means he is not a conservative. Santorum bringing up binational health care seems to be overshadowed by Perry’s really awful performance.
Romney ran in ’08 and it’s painfully clear barely anyone has even looked at his record;
Mitt squeezes onto the global warming couch with Newt & Pelosi http://is.gd/l4Vfdv
Romneycare For Farmers http://bit.ly/jVcXj0
The Mitt Romney Deception http://bit.ly/dkXndL
The Mitt Romney Report http://bit.ly/g5ZfiO
True Romney http://bit.ly/i7u0zN
And these don’t hardly cover it all.
Perry, despite what he said tonight, is actually worse on illegal aliens than Obama is;
Rick Perry not a true conservative by Tancredo http://politi.co/pv9OnW
Rick Perry AGREES with Obama: Open Borders for America http://bit.ly/qfmWli
Rick Perry thanked by Vicente Fox for Illegals In-State Tuition (TX Dream Act) http://bit.ly/qWLDMY
Does GOP want Perrys DREAM act too? http://bit.ly/lmyB3R
This issue alone has already buried him but, no one even mentioned Perry’s support (still) for a US-Mexican Highway (Trans-Texas Corridor).
Um Perry is not perfect but neither is Palin.
@Barak – no one is perfect.
The problem for Perry is that instead of getting better, his debate performances have not improved. Rather, he has gotten worse. That written, one bad debate does not a campaign end, but his performance in Florida clearly did not help.
IMV, the real problem is that Governor Perry has been selling himself as a Reagan conservative, but his answers clearly indicate that is not the case.
Rather, taking advantage of the election finance laws in Texas, he is a play to pay politician, whose political ideology, when push comes to shove, leans towards Democratic socialism rather than Reagan conservatism (i.e. a disciple of George W. Bush’s compassionate conservatism.)
We’ve got a problem. I don’t like the RINO label that often, but if it is appropriate for anyone it is Mittens “I’ve got a track record conspicuous with the naked eye from outer space” Romney. Perry would probably do as fine a job as anyone could given the overall political climates and structures in this country, but he can’t.let.this.guy.sound.better.than.him.
I agree with Baraka, too. Perry has governed long enough, and in a state with a huge and diverse population that has a lengthy border with an unstable nation of 120 million. Of course he is going to do the odd thing that runs afoul of purist ideology. The thing is, he was one of the earliest with the cojones to call out Obama. If you hold everyone with an actual track record (IMO Palin doesn’t have one, and I lived in Alaska when she was governor) to that higher standard, you’ll end up with nobody.
Perry’s message needs refining. With Bachmann likely gone I think he’s our hope.
How utterly depressing; I feel like 2012 will be 2008 all over again. Our choice will come down to BAD or WORSE. ( Of course Obama being WORSE ). Maybe its that way most of the time. It just seems that in a country of over 300 million people we could come up with better candidates.
No, Perry is not our only hope. Palin’s record is not perfect, but it’s not as atrocious as the pretender from Austin.
Perry is, for all intents and purposes, done as a potato. He is Fred Thompson 2.0.
Hey HTW, So we should accept a moderate, because, it’s the best we can get. Correct me if I’m misunderstanding something but, isn’t that the basic definition of a freaking RINO? We should pick the politican who can be molded into being acceptable to voters? Thank you for your opinion, I will keep it in mind when I see other comments that you make. By the way, your claim about living in Alaska sounds a little convienent, up until that point you were sounding quite good and CONCERNED, but that was a little too far.
Wasn’t Santorum the only one really making hay over the instate tuition thing? I doubt that PA has a population demographic that is 33% hispanic. There is a reason why all but 4 legislators in the Texas State Government passed the Texas Dream Act. Unfortunately, Perry seems unable to articulate it properly. I would call the people booing Perry over this heartless only if I thought they were fully aware of the particular problem Texas has with the Americanized children of undocumented Mexicans. Texas isn’t Pennsylvania. Right now you’ve probably got the vast majority of Texans severely pissed off at Santorum and GOPers in general by association, and I don’t blame them.
Romney’s going to breeze right through this.
Perry is establishing himself as “compassionate”. Romney has already established that he is “compassionate”. Sorry fellas, no sale. GWB tried that, and it eventually became so toxic that Obama got away with blaming Bush for 2 years despite what Obama was doing to make things worse. Let’s see how compassionate conservatism plays with the primary voters.
Well, Texas doesn’t deserve any special consideration, Godzilla. Yeah, it may be 33% hispanic, but it doesn’t mean that those kids deserve in-state tuition. Let them pay more money or have them go out of state for college.
Sorry, but I ain’t buying what Perry is selling. Because it’s absolute horse-shi’ite.
Relying on memory, I think Romney did weigh in on the instate tuition thing, come to think of it. But I don’t think it was something he jumped on, but was responding to a question put to him. He mentioned that it wasn’t right for students from other states to pay out-of-state tuition while the children of illegal aliens in Texas to pay instate tuition. He didn’t come down as hard as Santorum did, but he’s going to have to tap dance a little better than that. You want to see Texas go blue, nominate a republican who comes down hard on the Texas Dream Act. You can kiss conservatism goodbye for good then.
Conservatism left town with Barry Goldwater.
The debates make my hair hurt.
The republicans are moving further apart.
Palin could be a conservatives only chance.
PALIN 2012!
I think Herman Cain with a Newt Gingrich as Vice President is the ticket, Herman has NO cronies he is not indebted to anyone but himself and Newt can work a Congress like no bodies business and would help Herman create legislation that CONSERVATIVES wan! I am just throwing that out there so you all don’t get depressed about our options, Obama will be fired no matter who the candidate is!
This is it? This is what it all comes down to? Selection, of President, of these United States of America. In a time of war (like never, ever … EVER known before). Is a freakin television popularity contest?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-2040326/X-Factor-2011-Gary-Barlow-accused-going-Ceri-Rees-bag-cut-scenes.html
You people are scaring me. You really are. Come on now … turn off your f*ckin tv’s already. Before it’s too late. You can do it.
This has been a test of the emergency skywatch brigade. We repeat … this is only a test. Should any brain gobblers, from the planet stinky pinky actually arrive … excuse me for a moment, there’s a knock at the door
“…it doesn’t mean that those kids deserve in-state tuition. Let them pay more money or have them go out of state for college.”
Coupla thangs…
1. the in-state tuition (WHICH IS NOT THE DREAM ACT) was passed by very strong majorities in the Texas legislature.
2. people climb on Perry’s head for being high-handed on the HPV EO…but climb on his head for NOT being high-handed and vetoing a veto-proof bill (Hypocrites…??? Could be…)
3. a FRACTION of ONE PERCENT of Texas college students are illegal aliens. Big FLUCKING deal. With a good Texas college eduction, they are MORE likely to EX-migrate back to Mexico.
4. Dan Riehl got all “compassionate” (as so many of you are misusing that term) just recently over the Tyson crap. WTF…!?!? Since we are torturing meanings, maybe when you do, you should provide a definition.
5. if we are electing someone who skillfully says all the right things, regardless of how they govern, well….we are screwed.
That would give us Bad Luck Barry again.
I think Newt Gingrich did the better debate than Romney and Perry. The problem with Romney he has been attacked Perry since the last two debate. Romney will not get the nominee in 2012 because he is not conservative and has already hurt the Republican Party. He is another liberal just like the Democrats. The Democrats and the liberal news media choose Romney as their candidate because he supported the Obamacare. Maybe Sarah Palin can get into the race and she can do good debate than Romney and Perry. If Romney does get the nominee, the Republican Party will lose the election in 2012 and we will have Obama back in the White House for another next four more years until 2016. The Republican Party still need a clean house.
http://pajamasmedia.com/eddriscoll/2011/09/22/the-great-euro-swindle/
A far-ranging piece that covers the Euro-FAIL and ends up with a Milton Friedman PUNKING of the despicable Elizabeth Warren.
Waaay O.T … Hey Zilla, that you from Fullrangedriver Forum?
“We’re the country that built the Intercontinental Railroad,” Barack Obama.
That’s what the president of the United States flat-out said Thursday during what was supposed to be a photo op to sell his jobs plan next to an allegedly deteriorating highway bridge.
A railroad between continents? A railroad from, say, New York City all the way across the Atlantic to France? Now, THAT would be a bridge!
It’s yet another humorous gaffe by the Harvard graduate, overlooked by most media for whatever reason. Like Obama saying Abraham-Come-Lately Lincoln was the founder of the Republican Party. Or Navy corpseman. Or the Austrian language. Fifty-seven states. The president of Canada. Etc.
–LAT
President Putz.
Unrepeated…!!!
Even if you don’t fault Perry for the illegal immigrant/in state tuition bit, am I really expected to vote for someone who calls me a heartless bigot? If I wanted to support a candidate who insulted me and treated me with disdain I could vote Democratic.
Support whoever you think is best. Which is why I have no problem with Elmo supporting Bachmann.
Any Republican (including Ron Paul) can win.
Perry’s support of illegal immigrant’s getting subsidies, even if it is only 1%, is a tell-tale sign of not being Conservative. I don’t care if Perry is high-handed or low-handed. I want to see him being Conservative.
It does sound like Perry shot himself in the foot.
And from what I hear Santorum did pretty well as did Cain. (Yea!). I personally hope that Bachmann can raise her stock again.
And all these Conservatives need to, IMO, concentrate on beating down Romney first.
Good point, jane (although I don’t know he suggested bigotry last night).
Whoever is preparing him for these debates is STOOOOOOOOOOoooooooooooooooid.
“We need to be educating these children because they will become a drag on our society. I think that’s what Texans wanted to do. Out of 181 members of the Texas legislature when this issue came up [there were] only four dissenting votes. This was a state issue. Texas voted on it. And I still support it today.”
That is all he needed to say. That would be fine, true, and uncontroversial (you might disagree, but would not feel insulted).
Perry shows a tendency to fade over the debates, which could signal some health issue.
OTOH, I keep thinking of people like Andrew Mellon (Sec. of Treasury who REVERSED the Progressive era income tax rates and intuitively understood the Laffer Curve) who would not debate at all (he rarely even spoke in public), or George Washington. Would he debate, and how would he do?
This isn’t my idea of an optimal way to pick a good president. OR even real debating.
“Perry’s support of illegal immigrant’s getting subsidies…”
What “subsidy”, Tenn?
If you read the law, it is VERY restricted as to who qualifies. And, in Texas, illegals DO pay taxes that support education. Texas is a sales tax and property tax state. So, if they are here, they pay taxes via the same mechanisms all of us do.
And they ARE here. And there is VERY little any state governor can do to keep them out currently.
Posted by: Tennwriter | Friday, September 23, 2011 at 10:16 AM
Good stuff, sir.
Morgan Stanley is $39 Billion, its entire capitalization, in hock to French banks which are 50% undercapitalized. Greece is now planning to pay 50 cents on the dollar in October, if they can borrow the money.
It is 20 days ’til world Central Bankers begin plugging this dike with USD conjured from thin air.
Since the Swiss pegged the franc to the euro three weeks back, emerging markets like Mexico, have lost 20% against the dollar.
Paul Goldman last week said Egypt’s food prices are up 50%, Turkey’s current account deficit is at 11% of GDP.
(sarc) In times like these we need an expert, like Romney, at making himself rich.
Not saying the choice between Perry and Romney is even close but like that “national conversation on the future funding of SS” we must have one on:
Whether the Texan arrangement with Mexico–shipping parts and supplies to maliquidoras, selling finished goods inside the US, and buoying its internal economy with illegal labor–while ‘good’ for Texas, may be intolerable for the country.
Texas’ U6 rate is 8.5%, Minnesotastan’s is 7.7%.
Money to illegals is money to illegals.
And I still say that politicians from Texas are part of the cause of the problem of today. Ralph Yarbrough, Lyndon Baines Johnson, Both Bushes, and now James Richard Perry. Sorry, I refuse to vote for a Texan.
EVER.
“Whether the Texan arrangement with Mexico–shipping parts and supplies to maliquidoras, selling finished goods inside the US, and buoying its internal economy with illegal labor–while ‘good’ for Texas, may be intolerable for the country.”
Umm… Bullsh!t, gary. That AIN’T a “Texas thing”. It is a national thing. It is called “free trade”.
And THAT, friend, IS a conservative value.
“VERY restricted as to who qualifies.”
They have to be working toward citizenship, i.e., they have to file an affidavit to the effect.
TTTThat’s alll fffolks.
gary, this isn’t hard to get information on.
Illegal aliens CANNOT get citizenship. See the period? If they are here illegally, they have to return to their nation of origin and seek legal status to enter the U.S.
That is FEDERAL law.
“Undocumented immigrants with a Texas high school diploma or GED who have lived in Texas for at least three years may qualify for in-state tuition if they sign an affidavit saying they intend to apply for
***permanent residency***
as soon as they can.”
See???
‘It is called “free trade”.’
The costs of which are unfairly subsidized by the rest of us.
Taiwan engages in the same free trade without the problems Texas inflicts.
About that DMZ…
“Unfair”…???
“Subsidized”…???
“Inflicts”…????
You are sounding sort of…I dunno…PROGRESSIVE there, gary.
Thanks Tenn … seems too many have lost track. A’where we are, where we’re headed. And that we get there, together. Or we fail, beyond miserably. Beyond comprehension. Beyond anything I dare allow myself to believe, is in fact possible.
On the atomic scale, Miz B has put her boots on the ground, more’an anyone currently running. When it counts. Time, and time again.
I don’t fault anyone for their choice/s, nor their support thereof. I do take some discomfort, in the manner and method, at which some have informed their view.
As a country, we should be better. As a ‘group’ we are in fact, better than this. But ya’d never know it, by (circus) events currently unfolding.
When I say, if we make it to Nov 6, 2012, questioning if we will? I mean it. Snarkasm’s well and good, as it goes. But now seems everyone’s resigned, to an eternity thereof. In the totality of the process. Like it’s all just a (strange, bizarre) big joke.
Even poor people, yes P O O R, are out buying St. Gaudens. And those once who looked down their schnoz’s, at gunnuts? Are racing … to post jpeg’s, of their grouping, at the range.
I’d love to be wrong about events. Wouldn’t that be foogin great, huh? The horror isn’t only what is yet to be, what IS coming. The horror, beyond my belief, are the eyes so many. Shut wide.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTL9myUqLMs
(The Impressions People Get Ready/2:42)
“Unfair”…???
“Subsidized”…???
“Inflicts”…????
You are sounding sort of…I dunno…PROGRESSIVE there, gary.
Strangely, I find myself agreeing with Perry on several issues (including the allowing of in-state tuition for children of illegals and the building of a fence). I’m not going to get into why … as both turn on issues of pragmatism rather than principle. I also agree with him on the issue of Social Security, from “Ponzi scheme” to the fact that it was unconstitutional in its inception. (You’d have to understand a few things about the way it was presented to the cowed Supreme Court at the time and how, when passed, the pay-out age was 62 when the expected lifespan was 60…)
But, he is a terrible debater. Terrible. Terrible. He comes off as either ill-prepared (after all these years? On subjects which he’s argued for decades?) or not very quick on his feet – if not outright dim. (You’re not “compassionate” if you disagree on the in-state tuition for children of illegals? Really? REALLY? That’s his argument?????)
Romney comes off looking good from the optics perspective, but I can’t agree with him on most subjects – even if I could convince myself that he actually believed the words which came out of his own mouth – which I can’t.
Bachmann has lost me completely. She has a record of consistently making claims which are contrary to reality, can’t keep a staff (campaign or otherwise) which raises warning signs for a potential leader (where’s the loyalty – and why isn’t it present?)
Newt? Come on. It’s Newt. He was done, politically, twenty years ago.
Cain? Has some good answers, but speaks a bit too plainly for a President. (If you mess with Israel, you’re messing with the U.S.? Really? That would be a POLICY? If not policy, then “just words?” And, if “just words,” is he just another politician?) There is something to be said for plain speaking, but something more to be said for diplomacy as the President IS the wellspring of American foreign policy – the head diplomat – a person who can literally shake the world with a word.)
If Palin is getting in, now’s the time.
I saw a bumper sticker last year that said, “If Jimmy Carter gave us Reagan, then Barack Obama should give us GOD.” This is not yet turning out to be true. Things seem quite the opposite really.
–Ben Howe
Regretfully, there is no great argument to that.
I love Herman Cain as a guy, a proven business leader, and a thinker in general. But as PROTUS? Not this cycle.
I love Michelle Bachmann as a patriot, a proven able lawyer, and as a tough, courageous person. As POTUS…not so much.
Newty or Mitty…? Naw. Romney is a proven business and management guru, but you can hire those. Newty is very bright, but you can hire “brights” (if you even have to…they often give you stuff free).
Perry has been weak in the debates. That can’t be a good thing as we look toward the Obama/Whoever debates.
The rest are just extras on stage, IMNHO.
Palin remains a wildcard…
Could we draft Rubio…???
Umm no Rags, but I won’t waste a minute discussing/arguing the Natural Born clause.
Period.
O.T.
http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2011/09/22/president-obamas-westside-office-vandalized-window-shot-out/
Not too long back, I suggested I knew what Chucklehead’s October Surprise will be. Danced around specifics, for reasons (which should now be) obvious.
I’ll now go on record. It will revolve around, in totality. The safety, and threats upon, you know who. They will be paraded, amplified, rerun in the media, nonstop. 24/7.
It has begun. Be afraid. Be very f*cking afraid.
“You are sounding sort of…I dunno…PROGRESSIVE”
Typical Alinsky, play the bigot card, isolate the opposition, name them the enemy responsible for your sins.
You’ve got nothing but ad hominem, silky one-trick-pony.
Rubio/Cain?
Hey, you have every opportunity to justify your words. I didn’t go ad hominem on you. I noted YOUR choice of words. In support of a BIG GOVERNMENT position, I might (and DO) add.
Have at it. EXPLAIN.
“Romney is a proven business and management guru, but you can hire those. Newty is very bright, but you can hire “brights” (if you even have to…they often give you stuff free).”
Ok, not without a clue, but you can’t be a trial lawyer, must be the suit?
“BIG GOVERNMENT .. EXPLAIN.”
Explain about taking credit for shipments to maliquidoras as international trade, and profit selling to the rest of us, trading union for day laborer wages, and laying the bill at the feet of Federal government is the small government solution rather than abdication of responsibility.
We’re just supposed to fix your problem with open borders but leave all the incentives for illegal activity in place because your standard of living demands same.
http://www.qando.net/?p=11616&cpage=1#comment-122528
Bill Clinton took on the TEA Party movement. And lost to himself…
Now tell the folks how you would fix this awful Texas conspiracy, gary. (Which, I guess is not being done by Arizona, New Mexico, California, or any state with a sea port.)
“Now tell the folks how you would fix this awful Texas conspiracy”
Like I’ve said a number of times prior, I’m not looking for an over-arching answer to entitlements or immigration from the candidates. The former is premature to the real issue of smaller government.
Indeed, significant layoffs like 120K in the post office-early retirements mostly-are a big enough dilemma to surmount.
Illegal immigration, as Reagan proved, cannot be addressed with amnesty as Booosh mooted. Texas and the border states will not get everything their way, but they’re in the conversation.
We cannot pay for immigration reform, securing the border, without eliminating all those wonderful services SS taxes have paid for like the EPA, Depts. of Education, Energy, DHS, SEC, seized western state land, Tax and Tort reform, Obamacare, Dodd-Frank,etc.
And yesterday the Bernank hammered another nail in state and municipalities pension coffins insuring long-term rates under perform.
As, I believe one of the ladies noted above, characterizing your allies as heartless or bigots is unfortunate.
See…
Posted by: Ragspierre | Friday, September 23, 2011 at 10:25 AM
“The cringe-worthiest moment, by a hair, was when Perry botched what should have been his most potent attack on Mitt Romney’s chronic flip-flopping”.
Independent news correspondent Jamie Dupree calls Perry’s tongue-tied moments “verbal cul-de-sacs”. He appears to have the same problems with syntax and thought articulation that W did, although at other times both men can be very engaging and lucid. It’s an interesting phenomenon.
I don’t think the conservatives are not satisfied with the debate between Romney and Perry. The real problem is Mitt Romney. It is because he is not conservative and he is already hurt the Republican Party. Romney does flip flop om every issues because he trying to get electing. I know that Romney is not going to repeal Obamacare because he does support Obamacare. Romney is a liberal Democrat. He should have join the Democratic Party and run against Obama in the primary election. Romney is a loser. I am disappointed with Perry because of his immigration policy. We do need to put a fence near the border. I think Newt Gingrich won the debate last night and he does know a lot of stuff. Just like what Ann Coutler said about Romney, for example, if Romney does get the nominee, the Republican Party will lose the election in 2012. I agree with Ann and she is right. Obama will be back in the White House his second term for another four more years until 2016.
Conservatism left town with Barry Goldwater.
The debates make my hair hurt.
The republicans are moving further apart.
Palin could be a conservatives only chance.
Sadly, for Rick Perry, he is now a national laughingstock. His attempt to talk about Romney’s flip-flopping was hilarious, and not in a good way. Ann Coulter is absolutely right: the ONLY chance to beat Obama is to nominate Romney. Don’t blow it Republicans. Just so you get it, here it is again: The ONLY chance to beat Obama is to nominate Romney. Take that to the bank.
Our country needs competent leadership! I understand why each candidate is attractive to their base, but the truth is if we want positive change in this country we need to get behind the candidate who has the best chance of getting elected and we can’t elect a president without the middle. Obama won the middle last time. The middle isn’t going to jump ship unless they see a better option. They don’t care about religion or conservative or liberal ideology. They just want the person who will bring back jobs and turn our country around. The only candidate who consistently beats Obama in the polls is Romney. If Perry or Palin or Bachmann get the nomination I don’t think they can win the middle. If we choose our candidate based on pure ideology we will ensure Obama a second term. I’ve heard complaints that Romney isn’t conservative enough, but he is far more conservative than Obama (and probably Perry too). The political environment with Romney as president will favor conservative ideals. Romney can win the middle and the presidency. There are certainly reasons to criticize Romney, but in the end he is the best chance we have to move our country back in the right direction.
Some of these “moderates” talk to conservatives as if they believe that we have never heard of (or were present for) the “Reagan Revolution,” or the “Contract with America,” or even the election results as recent as 2010.
If a conservative candidate rises – one who has an iota of charisma and is able to articulate conservative ideals – then he/she can win the Presidency and bring along an even greater margin in the House and, perhaps, bring the Republicans to 60 in the Senate.
The mood of the country is fixed for an historic election – IF someone rises who is able to take advantage of it.
Romney isn’t that person. He is the worst sort of politician, one who has no core beliefs – but will craft his “message” to his current constituency. Would I vote for him in the general election? Sure. ABO (Anyone but Obama.) But, in the primaries? Not a chance.
I’ve had my fill of politicians. It’s time for a LEADER.
The main problem with Perry right now is not so much ideological, it is public perception. Public debates are a platform to allow candidates to tell the electorate who they are and what they stand for. If a candidate comes across as inarticulate, uncertain, ill-at-ease or just plain stupid…they are going to have very serious issues winning the nomination…and almost no chance of winning the election against a very clean cut looking, articulate, charismatic president. Clinton won re-election with less than 50% of the popular vote and approval ratings similarly in the mid-40% range. So did Reagan.
If the GOP fields uncharismatic, weak opposition, it will be the Democrats which enjoy the landslide victory in 2012, not the GOP.
Who can win in Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Iowa, Virginia, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Colorado vs. Obama? Nevada is also a concern. Pennsylvania, Michigan and Minnesota will likely remain Democratic EV, unless Obama’s popularity is below 40% in those states.
With regard to the Jewish vote: Obama will lose a significant percentage of the American Jews who voted for him last time, but will win that bloc of voters as a whole. Reagan won the election with only about 35% of the Jewish vote nationwide. Florida should be interesting in this respect…good chance of swinging GOP.