Why Immigration Is The Key For Obama In 2012

By
May 11, 2011

Combining two bits of analysis, one from the Right and one the Left, tells you all you need to know as to why Obama is now pushing the immigration issue, just as Reid played it in Nevada in 2010.

This first item via Ford O'Connell, a solid electoral analyst and friend, who blogs at Project Virginia.

So who or what does Obama need to target if he is going to win re-election? According to the recently released 2010 Census data, Obama should primarily be focused on the economy and jobs as it relates to independents and Hispanics in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and New Mexico. All of these states have newly minted Republican governors who are under the gun to improve the economic plight of their respective states. If these governors stumble, their constituents will be looking for a quick fix and they won’t hesitate to pull the lever again for Obama.

Then over to an item by Ezra Klein, which Ford links to, as well. The Hispanic vote in a handful of states is critical to Obama in his campaign for re-election. Consequently, his bringing it up was always anticipated and it has far more to do with his winning re-election, than performing responsibly as chief executive of the United States.

In the short term, this is very good for Republicans. But is that true in the long term? A lot of these changes are driven by Hispanic immigrants.Texas gets more seats now, but the way it's getting those seats bring us closer to the day when Texas becomes a viable target for Democrats. Same goes for Arizona — and that's a state where Hispanics are getting increasingly radicalized against the GOP. As Larry Littlefield pithily puts it, "It seems that most of the growth is in Blue portions of Red states."

Comments:
  1. barfo says:

    “If these governors stumble, their constituents will be looking for a quick fix and they won’t hesitate to pull the lever again for Obama.”
    So the residents of these states are gonna vote for Obama if the economy doesn’t improve.
    And they’ll vote for Obama if the economy does improve.

  2. mark l. says:

    gallup just put up a 43 obama, 40 gop…
    obama is working with a 43% base?
    it’s called 20% erosion of support.
    let the as*whipping begin.
    i know barfo, you’ll make up what he is continually losing on the economy by making the gop pick into the boogie man.
    the gop’s boogie man has just ran up more debt than ANY us president, with little relief in sight. you honestly think he get’s a second term?
    spare him, and yourself, the agony.
    concede, now.

  3. Brittanicus says:

    1986 IMMIGRATION CONTROL & REFORM ACT WILL BE ENFORCED BY THE TEA PARTY
    On March 17, 2011, Democrat Sen. Harry Reid of Nevada speculated for reasons known to himself, that the TEA PARTY would be short lived and disappear? Where he came up with this hypothesis makes the Tea Party branch members laugh, as the Tea Party is continually growing and now in the tens of millions. Senator Reid has a dense amount of illegal aliens in the Silver State and is obviously pandering. States as Nevada and California must receive oversight to observe if illegal aliens are voting in elections, as absentee ballots are easy to forge numerous times. As of today there are thousands of these cells, as the spirited Founder and chair Rev. William Temple of Freedom Jamboree and the Tea Party National Straw Poll Convention explained at the news conference. Temple reprimanded the majority Speaker of the House Republicans, John Boehner. He had not sufficiently pushed for a cut in the massive federal deficit of 14.5 Trillion dollars and climbing each day. One of the main issues that must be exposed is the distraction of the illegal immigration invasion. This is currently associated with jobs, the economy, gasoline prices and banks that not lending to home buyers.
    In El Paso, Texas, yesterday president Obama made a speech relating border security and the need to allow more immigrants into America? My assumption we should ask the 22 million Americans who are unable to find a full time jobs, specifically the poorer workers who don’t have a higher education? So just what we necessitate is more immigrant labor so says the President? According to the president’s speech and Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano the border is more secure now, than it’s ever been? Yet according to the General Accounting office “illegal aliens can only be stopped along 129 miles of our nearly 2,000 mile long border with Mexico and along only 2 miles of our nearly 4,000 mile long border with Canada!” Local Border Sheriffs Larry Dever of Cochise County and Paul Babeu of Pinal County and anonymous Border agents have a different attitude to Obama’s statement.
    The border region is more dangerous than ever before? That the border is so dangerous, that there are signs indicating these certain areas are off limits to the American public. Rep. Michele Bachmann, Senator Rand Paul, key leadership of the Tea Party opposes measures of easing immigration restrictions. Over the previous 3 decades, our borders have become less effective, with easy access in some locations to illegal immigrants, increasing the flood while the enforcement of our existing immigration laws have fallen on deaf ears. Rep. Bachmann stated, ” I support legislation that first addresses our most urgent problem: securing America’s borders. We must start by using new technologies such as electronic surveillance where most effective. We need to enforce current laws by holding responsible those who willfully violate our nation’s immigration laws.”
    Bachmann also co-sponsored declaring English as the official language of the US. Activists have said remove incentives and rewards to illegal aliens such as licenses, welfare, and other taxpayer services. Senator Rand Paul in my personal letter said, “I also believe that subsidizing something creates more of it, and I do not think the American taxpayers should be forced to pay for welfare, medical care and other expenses for illegal immigrants. I will work to stop those taxpayer funded benefits.” America is a land of charitable and compassionate people, but our generosity and principles are being strained and being abused by those who are willing to break the law, taking our jobs and our tax dollars. Why is it not a felony to enter the United States without permission? Today these individuals are protesting and demanding even more from the taxpayers, in the form of education, health care, services that is provided to citizens and legal residents.
    The Tea Party America’s has declared that the illegal alien population will begin to shrink instead of growing, if we support candidates that will reflect the will of the vast majority of American citizens. The revolt within the Republican Party is the TEA PARTY who is resentful of both political parties having agendas to support their individual empowerment. This accounts for thousands of extra votes for Democrats and for the GOP exploitable cheap labor. Neither is the belief of the TEA PARTY that wants stronger enforcement at the North and Southern border, which includes a National Guard presence, with the ability to kill drug smuggling, weapons and illegal immigrants, with force if necessary? Furthermore, the mandated use of the new version of E-Verify, that carries tough penalties for businesses that hire workers, without legal status. In addition, the Permanent operation of “Secure Communities” in local police locations, to fingerprint and check their criminal charges through ICE data bases.
    The Tea Party will not tolerate any further Amnesties, after the Great 1986 Amnesty laws were ignored by both parties. Internally in America, 20 million illegal aliens still find work in notorious businesses of every classification. The 2006 Secure (Double) Fence Act was intentionally unfunded just months after being enacted. The Tea Party apposes Sanctuary Cities, Chain Migration and the court mishandled instant citizen for babies intentionally conceived to gain entrance for illegal parents into America. The Dream Act, which in turn will add to the Chain Migration and Immigration Reform, a misleading name for Amnesty. All these lenient rewards, just encourages further exploitation and a unfettered magnet to financial benefits and public services once crossing the border or overstaying expired visas. The American people have woken up and each day are finding that the Tea Party (perhaps third party) are more like their middle class interpretation that they are striving for? The Tea Party stands somewhere between Democrats and Republicans in definition, as moderate Conservatism have received amazing results in such a short time. So Join the TEA PARTY as the revolution has just begun, to fade out the radical people who run this country. Skilled immigrants with high profession job expertise will receive the hospitality of all Americans, including the Tea party members. But we must stop the unfettered incursion of people, who will need welfare assistance and will displace impoverished Americans who still have a manual jobs.

  4. barfo says:

    “concede, now.”
    Haha, Mark.
    Obama is a sure thing.
    The Republicans might have a slight chance…if they could come up with a candidate named “generic.”

  5. George H.W. Bush says:

    barfo,
    Don’t get cocky, kid.

  6. Sandy says:

    Obama had to bring Immigration reform up now as Rep. Luis Gutierrez warned him that if he didn’t, he would advise Hispanics to stay home on election day. Gutierrez threatened Obama, during the Obamacare debate, that the Hispanic caucus would not support the legislation if it didn’t cover illegals. Apparently Obama promised him that he would push for Immigration reform/amnesty, and is now doing as promised, as he needs their votes. This dog won’t hunt as the House will never pass an amnesty bill. When the Libs had control of both houses, and the Oval Office, it wasn’t a priority for Obama. The Hispanics need to realize that.
    This will work in the Republican’s favor. Obama will regret that he is bringing this up now. During the Bush/McCain amnesty fiasco, it was the first time that the majority of the country melted the phone lines to stop amnesty. It hasn’t changed. Obama is waking up a sleeping giant, and he will pay for it.

  7. gary gulrud says:

    “And they’ll vote for Obama if the economy does improve.”
    So Ogabe’s set his sights on 2016 then?

  8. gary gulrud says:

    “obama is working with a 43% base?”
    Best case. Worst case, he gets primaried, gets a no-name Elite from the GOP like Goldilocks and Indie runs from the Right and Left.
    Twenty something.

  9. Dinah says:

    barfo, it is not Republican women’s fault that liberals are bitter, narrow minded individuals with a lot of self loathing and therefore it shows on their face.